Moderna Or Pfizer? Which Company Stands To Gain The Most From Vaccine Rollout

Moderna Or Pfizer? Which Company Stands To Gain The Most From Vaccine Rollout

Moderna and Pfizer made history when they brought their coronavirus vaccines from development to market in less than a year. So far, though, Moderna has been the only one to benefit from a share-price perspective. The company’s shares soared more than 600% this year. Pfizer’s stock is little changed.

Why such a difference? Investors knew that an eventual vaccine would be Moderna’s first marketed product, and therefore, its source of product revenue. Conversely, Pfizer’s future didn’t depend on the vaccine program. That’s because the big pharmaceutical company generates revenue from a vast array of products.


Now we’ve entered a new phase. Moderna and Pfizer launched their vaccines this month under emergency authorizations. Let’s take a look at which company may win when it comes to revenue — and share performance.

U.K., U.S., and European authorizations

Pfizer and partner BioNTech won authorization in the U.K., then the U.S., and most recently in the European Union. The pharmaceutical company has orders for at least 550 million doses from various countries and regions including the U.S., the European Union, the U.K, and others. The number doesn’t include Canada, which ordered doses but didn’t announce how many.

Pfizer hasn’t released how much it’s charging, but we can use the price the U.S. paid as a guide. That’s $1.95 billion for 100 million doses, or $19.50 per dose. For the doses ordered so far, that equals more than $10 billion. Pfizer also must share some of its gains with BioNTech.

The US has now purchased 400 million Covid-19 vaccine doses -- half from Pfizer and half from Moderna -- allowing it to immunize 200 million people under the two-shot regimen

Let’s have a look at Moderna. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Moderna’s vaccine Emergency Use Authorization last week. The biotech has secured orders for more than 470 million doses from the U.S., the European Union, Canada, Switzerland, and other countries. Like my Pfizer count, this doesn’t include countries that haven’t announced quantities ordered. In this case, that means Singapore and Qatar.

We’ll use the price the U.S. paid again to give us a ballpark revenue estimate, and that’s $1.5 billion for $100 million doses — or $15 a dose. That means more than $7 billion in revenue from the doses ordered so far. A point to keep in mind is that Moderna has priced smaller orders at $32 to $37 a dose, so that could bring revenue even higher.There are a few other points to consider. First, it’s clear that the companies won’t generate those levels of revenue overnight. Moderna aims to make as many as 125 million doses available in the first quarter. So in the near term, revenue may be just under $2 billion…Read more>>